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The Plague Dissident #1, #2, #3, #4
A very basic feature of viruses, and all life forms, is that they mutate. The flu you get one year is not the same flu you might get a few years later. This is why flu vaccines vary in their effectiveness across years. A shot developed from one strain might be a little protective against a new strain. The same is true for COVID-19. The virus mutates and some variants will be more, or less, dangerous than others.
Still, even though virus strains do vary in important ways, it is also important to note that they tend to vary in a range. Different strains of influenza, for example, do not have radically different symptoms. Rather they are somewhat more or less dangerous versions of the same disease. Also, vaccines and treatments often to vary within a range. If there is a new flu strain, your vaccine will still be at least somewhat useful for a lot of folks.
And not surprisingly, the same is true for COVID. The various strains have similar IFR’s (a standard measure of lethality) and vaccines seem to work pretty well against all strains. Here is what we know about IFR’s. Last year, the IFR for people age 60-64 was .5% and drops down to .003% for kids. The IFR reported at that time was 10% for age 80+. For delta, the numbers seem hard to find but studies suggest that delta for *unvaccinated* people is about twice as lethal as other variants. Sounds scary, but remember that IFR for COVID in general is very low for non-elderly groups (e.g., .003% for <18). You’re doubling a number that is already low. What about omicron variant? This article discusses South African research, which estimates an overall .053% IFR for omicron, which is in the ball park of what we had before.
Furthermore, vaccines seems to work pretty well against omicron and delta variants. Data from the UK health services notes that hospitalization is very low among the vaccinated. even for new variants In American data, death among the vaccinated from all versions of COVID remains low. And death among vaccinated young people is nearly zero (e.g., see this Texas data, page 7, Tables 5 and 6).
What is the conclusion? First, variants are in the ballpark of the original. The basic profile of the disease remains unchanged and vaccines remain very effective. Second, there is no need to get panicked about new variants. Remain calm unless you have strong evidence that something truly new has showed up. Third, we should be “open” and institute measures to protect the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Fourth, we need to encourage as many people as possible to get vaccinated.
Bottom line: Don’t be scared by variants. Instead, stay focused on getting people vaccinated and helping those in high risk groups.
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